When examined through a rational lens, the United States’ Russian policy becomes understandable. The United States does not want Russia to become stronger and act uncontrollably in the post-Cold War era. It saw an opportunity in the Ukraine conflict, using it to drain Moscow’s energy, expand NATO’s influence, and challenge the EU’s leash. The primary goal concerning Russia is to ensure that Moscow does not become a hindrance in the competition with China.
Similarly, the United States’ policy towards China, from its perspective, is based on rational reasons. China, with its population, economy, and military, poses the most significant threat to the United States. This is why Washington changed its national security strategy in 2021, labeling China as the “most important geopolitical challenge.” Therefore, the United States’ efforts to encircle China, deploying warships in the Pacific, establishing alliances, seeking alternative trade routes (such as IMEC), and intensifying economic warfare, all have clear motivations.
However, the United States has two policies that are incomprehensible, cannot be explained with rational arguments, and appear to contradict its national interests. The first of these is its unwavering support for Israel. US foreign policy, especially in favor of Israel, generates costs and fuels anti-American sentiment in the region. It undermines its positions in Ukraine, and its freedom of maneuver. To justify this unwavering support for Israel, some rational explanations are sought, often pointing to the influence of the Israel lobby. However, no rational state would submit to a lobby that generates such crises and security concerns. If it does, there must be some reasons beyond rationality.
The second incomprehensible policy that the United States persists in is its partnership with the PKK, a terrorist organization. The United States is collaborating with a terrorist organization, at the cost of antagonizing Türkiye, a NATO member with a powerful military. This partnership brings no gains to the United States. However, the cost of antagonizing Türkiye is significant.
Despite these costs and risks, the United States continues with its irrational policies in these two areas. The intersection of these two issues is Israel. By supporting Israel unwaveringly in the Middle East, the United States attempts to create a terrorist corridor in Syria to provide a shield for Tel Aviv.
Evangelicalism is what makes the United States an ardent supporter of Israel in these two cases. Do not assume that the elite governing the United States consists solely of rational individuals. Let me provide you with a striking example:
Mike Pompeo. He served as the head of the CIA from 2017 to 2018 and as the US Secretary of State from 2018 to 2021. After leaving office, he wrote a book called “Never Give An Inch,” which caused much controversy due to expressions that cast a shadow over Türkiye. However, what went unnoticed were the evangelical references in the book.
Pompeo’s statements proudly featured in his book are worth mentioning.
Pompeo says, “As a U.S. Secretary of State who is in solidarity with Israel, I am proud.” In the book, he recounts his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and tells him the following verbatim: “God gave Israel’s deed to Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, and their descendants forever.”
He notes that Evangelical Christians in the U.S. have many reasons to support Israel, emphasizing that the most significant reason is a verse from the Bible: “I will bless those who bless you, and whoever curses you, I will curse.” (Genesis 12:3) Let’s also emphasize that Pompeo would like to see the phrase “Diplomat of God” on his tombstone.
We might think that the course of international relations is determined solely by the interests of nation-states. When it comes to the U.S., we believe that these interests are shaped by rational choices. However, Pompeo’s writings prove the existence of a highly influential, irrational, and bigoted group within the U.S. government elite. The same group that made Biden say, “I am a Zionist” is also responsible for his statement that “Türkiye’s operations in Syria threaten our national security.” They speak the same language as Netanyahu, who says, “We will witness Isaiah’s prophecy against Hamas.”
Looking at this picture, we must reach the following conclusion: We cannot reach an agreement with the U.S. on the Syria issue. Because there are no rational individuals to negotiate with on the other side.
AZERBAIJAN ALSO SUPPORTS PALESTINE
Azerbaijan is known for its cooperation with Israel in the field of defense. We saw traces of this in the victory against Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Those who think that Baku is not sensitive about the Palestinian issue are mistaken. Azerbaijan is a Muslim country, a member of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. It has provided $1.6 billion in support for Palestine and supports its struggle for statehood. In summary, it stands in the same place as Türkiye on this issue.
ANKARA OPENED THE VALVE, BUT NO OIL IS COMING FROM IRAQ
The arbitration case cast a shadow over relations. When the February earthquakes came on top of that, Ankara had shut down the Iraq-Türkiye Oil Pipeline, in other words, closed the valve. Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar had announced on October 2 that the oil pipeline would be reopened in a few days. I’ve heard that Türkiye has completed the work related to the oil pipeline and opened the valve three weeks ago. However, no oil is coming from Iraq. Baghdad had been blaming Türkiye because the Baghdad route was closed. Even though the route is open, the fact that the oil flow has not started indicates that the problem is from Baghdad. So, what’s the problem? The daily half a million barrels of crude oil that will reach world markets via this pipeline have the potential to ease global oil prices. It could be said that this potential has perplexed Baghdad. At the same time, there is an ongoing dispute between Baghdad and Erbil. It is said that international oil companies are reluctant to work with Baghdad.
